For years now, the political tensions between the USA and China have been undeniable. To be more precise, the situation has been coming to a head for years. The reason for this is simple: the People’s Republic of China is no longer prepared to unquestioningly accept the United States of America’s claim to the role of the one and only true superpower. China is fighting its own way to the top. The battle for global supremacy has already begun and further escalation is in the offing over the next few years.
An Analysis by Dr. Horst Walther, Diplomatic Council
This battle takes place at many levels, geopolitically, militarily, economically, technologically, logistically – in many regions on earth and increasingly also in space. This is basically nothing new, although it is no less threatening.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now made it clear just how quickly such tensions can surmount to a violent confrontation and ultimately to war. It has further become clear that the USA is not content with the role of spectator, but is intervening militarily in an extremely active way, involving its European allies in the conflict as a matter of course. The delivery of heavy weapons from the Federal Republic of Germany for use against Russian troops is an example of the direct and comprehensive participation of the West in the proxy war between Russia and the USA in Ukraine.
It is to be expected that the USA will also use the same alliance against China that it has put in place against Russia, should this seem sensible and opportune to maintain or expand its own global dominance. In other words, if we have been engaged in some kind of “indirect war” against Russia since February 2022, a similar scenario is pending when the China-US conflict takes on a military dimension. There are many indications that the conflict over the comparatively small island has the potential to degenerate into a proxy war between the United States and the People’s Republic, at worst even into a Third World War.
Fundamental confrontation China versus USA
In order to assess this impending development, one must analyse the fundamental confrontation between the USA and China. This is exactly what this book deals with. The “battle for Taiwan” is merely the spearhead of a clash between Earth’s only true superpower at present and an ascending superpower that wants to advance to the forefront.
When and to what extent the conflict between China and the USA in Taiwan or possibly elsewhere on earth – or in the struggle for supremacy in space – will escalate militarily, can hardly be predicted. However, the period within which this is to be expected seems to be pre-programmed: before 2049.
China will celebrate on 1 October 2049. Exactly 100 years earlier, Mao Zedong had proclaimed the People’s Republic of China. His successor Xi Jinping [i] is determined to bring the country, which is one of the oldest advanced civilisations of humankind (written records of Chinese culture date back 3,500 years), to the top of the world by then.
This plan to make communist China the “superpower number 1” by 2049 is essentially hindered by “only” one other country: the United States of America, today’s “superpower number 1”. A competition for global supremacy has evolved, from which no other country – even in Europe – can escape. The struggle for the top takes place at all levels: politically, economically, technologically and possibly also militarily. And it takes place everywhere and on all paths: on land (with the states of Europe as a “pawn”), at sea and under the sea, in the air and increasingly in a kind of space race.
At 9,596,960 km2 (China) and 9,833,517 km2 (USA), both countries are roughly the same size, but the gross national product as a measure of the size and importance of the USA is about 50 percent higher than that of China (14.34 trillion) at 21.43 trillion dollars. With its 1.4 billion inhabitants, China is about four times superior to the USA (328 million) in terms of population. However, the rivalry between the two superpowers is less about numbers and more about influence and dominance – far beyond their own country.
Who will lead the world into the future?
The question is who will lead the world into the future. Since a “peaceful settlement” can probably be precluded, it is not an exaggeration to speak of a new “Cold War” between China and the USA. Basically, we can only hope that this war will actually remain “cold” – and not lead to a battle for Taiwan. It may be recalled that the last Cold War between the Western bloc, led by the United States, on the one hand, and the Eastern bloc, led by the Soviet Union, on the other hand, was several times close to destroying half or even the whole world, bearing in mind the nuclear destruction potential of both sides. The United States of America has clearly won this power struggle “USA versus USSR” (some say, for the time being). The Soviet bloc has basically imploded, it has disintegrated from within (attempting a “comeback” since 2022) – thus leaving the USA as the victorious power. This does not at all mean that the USA will emerge victorious against China in the “battle for the world” – or even just for the small island of Taiwan. The “Cold War 2.0” has already begun.
Situation similar to before WWI
The American scientist John Mearsheimer compares the current situation in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics [ii] with the situation before the First World War. At that time, Germany rose economically and politically. At an early stage, this was regarded by Great Britain, the then dominant superpower, as a threat to be addressed militarily.
In fact, there are astonishing parallels to the initial situation, but hopefully not in the subsequent course of the conclusions. On the penultimate page of his work, Mearsheimer warns:
“Neither Wilhelmine Germany, nor imperial Japan, nor Nazi Germany, nor the Soviet Union had nearly as much latent power as the United States had during their confrontations. But if China were to become a giant Hong Kong, it would probably have somewhere on the order of four times as much latent power as the United States does, allowing China to gain a decisive military advantage over the United States.”
Accordingly, US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken stated in his inaugural speech in March 2021: “China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to seriously challenge the stable and open international system – all the rules, values, and relationships that make the world work the way we want it to, because it ultimately serves the interests and reflects the values of the American people.
Our relationship with China will be competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.” [iii]
His words echoed a warning from Richard Nixon, who cautioned in his memoirs that the USA should “devote itself to China, promote and develop it in the coming decades, even while it was developing its strength and potential as a nation. Otherwise, one day we would be faced with the most remarkable adversary in the history of the world”.[iv]
This book does not purport to be exhaustive. It explicitly does not include the millennia-old, advanced civilisation, originated in today’s Henan province under the Xia Dynasty (approx. 2000 BC) and which produced the first pictograms on oracle bones as precursors of today’s Chinese characters. It does not shed light on the myth of the three primeval emperors: Fuxi, Shennong and finally the Yellow Emperor Huang Di as the actual creator of culture, nor does it shed light on the 16 earthly and heavenly emperors who preceded them. This book does not include the written records of Chinese culture dating back more than 3,500 years. Nor is it about the Empire, nor about the Mao Revolution and the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
Rather, this book is entirely devoted to the dispute between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America – using Taiwan as an example, but also going far beyond it. Historical references are only made to the extent that they appear to be of immediate importance for today’s and, above all, for future development. This applies in particular to the intensified multilateralism after 1945 and the decline of this form of interstate communication in the last ten or more years.
This book deliberately focuses on the analysis of the present geopolitical situation, the economic, technological, social and military options of the present People’s Republic of China in the struggle for supremacy with the United States of America and the presumed prospects up to 2049.
Jamal Qaiser, Dr. Horst Walther
[i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
[ii]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tragedy_of_Great_Power_Politics
[iii] https://www.state.gov/a-foreign-policy-for-the-american-people/
[iv] Richard Nixon, Memoiren, Ullstein 1981. p. 594.
