Teaser: Democrats have won control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections of 3 November 2026. For President Trump, divided government now beckons – with tangible consequences for trade, Ukraine policy and the transatlantic relationship.
As of the morning of 4 November 2026, CET. Figures are based on Associated Press projections; a number of races have yet to be called.
A historic night
Since the Second World War, both chambers of Congress have changed hands in the same midterm only three times: in 1946, 1994 and 2006. 2026 now joins that list. According to AP projections, Democrats have cleared the 218-seat threshold in the House; as of around 7.30am CET they held 224 seats to the Republicans’ 134, with 358 of 435 races called. In the Senate, Democrats – including two independents who caucus with them – stood at 54 seats to 42, with four of the 35 contests still undecided.
What stands out is the sheer breadth of the swing. Democrats picked up Senate seats in, among others, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina. In Texas, James Talarico prevailed in a state where no Democrat had won statewide office for more than three decades. In the House, Democrats took districts that Donald Trump had carried by as much as 18 points in 2024.
Democrats also made gains in governors’ mansions: Keisha Lance Bottoms (Georgia), Amy Acton (Ohio), Rob Sand (Iowa) and Gina Hinojosa (Texas) captured states previously run by Republicans.
What drove voters
AP reports that the cost of living, the war with Iran and concerns about corruption in government weighed most heavily. Mr Trump had urged supporters to vote as though he himself were on the ballot – and the election duly became a referendum on his presidency.
Democrats will read the result as a clear mandate to hold the executive to account and to put economic relief front and centre. Republicans point out that the president’s party traditionally suffers in midterms, and that core elements of the Trump agenda – border security, deregulation, industrial policy – retain broad support. Both readings have merit, yet the scale of the defeat is likely to prompt soul-searching within the Republican Party over direction and leadership.
Washington: scrutiny rather than a clear run
From January 2027, Mr Trump can no longer count on a compliant Congress. Legislation will require compromise, and budget battles and the risk of government shutdowns will grow. With a Senate majority, Democrats will also control the confirmation of cabinet members, ambassadors and federal judges. Vigorous committee investigations are to be expected. The president is likely to lean more heavily on executive orders and on foreign policy, where Congress’s ability to rein him in is limited.
Trade and the economy
For Europe, tariff policy is the key test. Trade policy rests largely with the White House in practice, but a Democratic Congress can challenge emergency powers, compel hearings and attach conditions to funding. A swift retreat from tariffs is unlikely – protection for domestic industry has supporters among Democrats, too. For German exporters, that means greater predictability is possible, but uncertainty will not disappear.
Ukraine, NATO and the Middle East
On security, Congress is set to assert itself more forcefully. Many Democrats – and a number of Senate Republicans – favour dependable support for Ukraine and an unequivocal commitment to NATO. Congress will also scrutinise the president’s war powers in the Iran conflict more closely. For European allies, however, one thing will not change: the demand that Europe spend more on its own defence enjoys cross-party consensus in Washington.
What Europe and Germany should do now
Divided government widens the circle of interlocutors. European diplomacy should engage not only the White House but also Congress, governors and individual states, which act in their own right as investment locations and trading partners. Berlin and Brussels would do well not to expect abrupt changes of course in Washington, but rather to keep strengthening their own capacity to act, both economically and militarily.
Looking ahead to 2028
In effect, this result fires the starting gun for the 2028 presidential race. Mr Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, so the field is opening up in both parties. Democrats have gained fresh faces from traditionally Republican states; Republicans must decide how much of the Trump legacy they wish to carry forward. For transatlantic relations, the next two years will therefore be a period of transition in which reliability must be underpinned above all by institutions.
Races still to be called
At the time of writing, four Senate races remained uncalled according to AP data, including Alaska, where the incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) held a narrow lead over Mary Peltola (D). Around 77 House races and six governor’s races, including Arizona and Alaska, were also still open. Control of both chambers, however, is settled.
Sources
- AP: Democrats win the US House, taking full control of Congress – www.apnews.com/article/midterm-election-house-senate-democrats-republicans-trump-f126e12e05b579a327b98481c0ae2226
- AP: Takeaways from the 2026 midterm elections – www.apnews.com/article/election-takeaways-midterms-trump-democrats-takeover-republicans-1cb09c8674598632ec3e4307eda5fbb8
- AP Live: 2026 midterm elections – www.apnews.com/live/midterm-election-2026
- The Guardian (AP data): live results – www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/nov/03/midterm-elections-full-results-senate-house-governor-races
- BBC: US midterm elections results 2026 – www.bbc.com/news/election/2026/us/results
- NBC News: Senate results – www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/senate-results
