America’s midterm elections have triggered a political earthquake. Donald Trump and the Republicans have suffered a historic defeat. The Democrats are taking control of both chambers of Congress – the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is far more than the usual rebuke for an incumbent administration. It is a clear repudiation by many American voters of the president’s political course.
What does this mean for the United States?
First, it means a return to a key element of the American constitutional order: checks and balances. After two years in which the Trump administration has frequently governed by decree and largely sidestepped Congress, congressional scrutiny will regain weight.
The Democrats will set up investigative committees, scrutinise government decisions, make personnel appointments harder and seek to influence the president’s policies through the budget process. A renewed debate over a possible impeachment cannot be ruled out either.
It would be wrong, however, to say that Trump has already been stripped of political power. He remains president and continues to wield substantial executive powers. At the same time, domestic political gridlock is likely to intensify. The next two years could therefore be marked by a particularly contentious struggle between the White House and Congress.
What does this mean for American foreign policy?
This may be where the greatest international uncertainty lies. A president weakened at home could seek to assert himself all the more strongly abroad. Foreign policy still offers Trump considerably more room for manoeuvre than domestic politics. The temptation to forge a foreign-policy legacy through spectacular diplomatic initiatives or displays of power is therefore likely to grow.
This applies in particular to three theatres of conflict:
- Ukraine and Russia: Trump could intensify efforts to bring the war to a rapid close. The decisive question remains on what terms – and with what consequences for Ukrainian sovereignty and the European security order.
- The Middle East and Iran: The war with Iran and its economic fallout have contributed to the Republicans’ electoral debacle. Further escalation could aggravate domestic political tensions. At the same time, new diplomatic initiatives cannot be ruled out.
- China: In relations with Beijing, too, Trump could seek foreign-policy successes through a personal summit and an understanding with Xi Jinping. Europe should watch carefully to ensure that its interests do not become the object of an American–Chinese bargain.
